As we head toward the start of many pay to play leagues in the 2024 – 2025 season, a big shakeup is looming on the horizon.
Careful examination of all of the pay to play rosters across the United States and Canada shows no less than sixteen teams that we could verify could not play a game today if they had to. An additional eight teams are simply unaccounted for when it comes to rosters because they have not been published anywhere.
The Junior A or Tier II leagues in Canada all look to be doing very well, and there are no reports of any teams on the verge of going dark. The United States though, is a different case entirely.
With multiple AAA programs going dark this off season, and the expansion of academy teams in the United States has put recruiting presure on Tier 3, AAA and the academy teams themselves. That recruiting presure has been exacerbated by some Tier 3 expansion in already over saturated markets.
Also contributing to the problem is the flow of information to players and parents concerning Tier 3, AAA and academic programs. There is a lot of incorrect information out there creating beliefs that are not supported by facts.
The question many of these teams who have low numbers are asking themselves this week is; “Just how long can I hold out until other teams fold?”
That is whats happening right now. As players are arriving to teams and finding ten or fewer players, or as many as six goalies on a roster with eight skaters, a lot of questions are being asked. Those questions mainly focus on “what do I do if the team folds?”
The most important thing players can do in this situation is to be honest with themselves. And parents need to look at facts, not feelings. Feeling “loyal” to a program that will go dark will almost always leave you in a much worse position than if you had found another opportunity before the team goes dark.
When you find yourself in a position where the team does not look viable, you need to look for a backup plan. Not having one will put you in a position that you will not be able to negotiate.
Forwards and defense will have an easier time of things because there will be places available. Goalies? If you dont have a backup plan you may be sitting at home for the season taking private lessons.
With some teams having already started the season, and others starting this week or next, the shakeup is on the way. Its important to remember, teams folding arent always announced publicly. So what may look like an opportunity today may be a lost expense tomorrow.
Key items to watch out for; changes in game dates, lack of a schedule, lack of player announcements, no players publicly listed on a roster anywhere, less than three full lines at practice, and more than three goalies in the dressing room. One sure sign a team is in financial trouble is if there are more than four goalies in your dressing room.
Another key item to know is that the NAHL and NCDC have already made most of their cuts. By our count there are close to three hundred pay to play roster spots to be filled at the Tier 3 level alone. There are at least another two hundred AAA or Academy roster spots to be filled.
There is nowhere close to five hundred players that are waiting to be cut from the NAHL, NCDC or Junior A in Canada. Those cut players your coaches are talking about coming are only going to top level pay to play programs, because they have options and are close to Tier 2 ready. Do not trick yourself into believing the unbelievable.
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