This weekend I spend with my co-workers playing golf and talking about the scouting schedules for the first three month of the season. While we sit, we talk about some of the very good Tier III player that do not move up. We also talk about the Tier III player and parent who simply have no idea why this not happen.
What was amazing to all of us is how little American player and parent understand about the team building process or the development process. More amazing is how some of the truth is right in front of their face and they simply do not want to see it. Sad really when you think about it.
So let us see the most obvious and only very basic of reasons first why the majority of Tier III player are not moving up.
The USHL have 17 teams, the NAHL have 24 teams.
In the United States there are approximately 200 Tier III teams.
The USHL and NAHL all eventually have to be to 23 man roster. Tier III team have 25 man roster.
The average USHL or NAHL team have about 7 player opening per year available. Some time more, some time less.
Of those openings each team have the draft picks and the tendered players from not only the current draft, but the year before. Those player are some time “affiliate” players and may play in a few game, and their development is tracked closely by the team. The majority of those player come from high level Midget AAA or Prep School program.
Can you not see that Tier III has five time the amount of team, and every team has more player on the roster than the higher level team? Can you not see that you can be a very good player in Tier III and still not move up simply because the number are dramatically stacked against you? Or are you one of the player and parent who still believe that Tier III is a more direct path to higher level?
Too many young player that could still play Midget are going to Tier III. Why? Because Coaches tell them they will become better playing against older players. In many case this is true. Becoming better player do not mean you are scouted or drafted.
But what they do not say is that you are more likely to become a higher level player by dominating other players in your age group. What they don’t say is that if you want to improve your chance of being drafted or tendered by the higher level, you need to play where they scout more. The higher level roster, the draft result and the tender list do not lie, most player come from Midget, Prep or High School. They are the best player at their “age specific” level.
Too many American player and parent think playing “junior” at the Tier III level is some bragging right. They are in too much of the hurry to get to “junior”.
This is not to say that some Tier III player do not move up to higher level. Some do every year. But with close to 5000 player in Tier III, if 50 player make the move up, it is only 1% that move up to NAHL or USHL. If it is 100 player moving up it is only 2%. 100 player moving up would be more than 2 Tier III player on each USHL or NAHL roster.
Check the roster for yourself to see if you can find 2 per team that come from Tier III the season before. Then check to see how many come from other program the season before.
So when the 1994 Tier III player got to camp this year, and he is a little better than the 1996 player who played Midget last year, player and parent wonder why the Tier III player not chosen over the Midget player. In many case the coach see the Midget player as someone who will continue to develop for longer time with his program. In many case they see younger player as having more “upside” because the older player is assumed to be more developed already and the “upside” outweigh the presumed “finished product”.
There is the reason why USA Hockey prefer “age specific” programming. There is a reason why 15 year old junior player do not happen any more and 16 year old have to be the absolute best of player to get approval for junior. The reason is to help you. It is to make sure you stop trying to rush your development. It is to make sure you stop trying to compare yourself to player who is three or four years older than you.
If the goal is to play college hockey one day, you will get there when you are meant to get there. Playing up will not accelerate the process.
To be sure their are exceptions to these circumstances. Some family need to play Tier III because no local AAA program is available, or because they can not afford the AAA program. There is nothing wrong in Tier III under this circumstance. Unfortunately though, as in life, limited resources will limit opportunity in most cases. In this event it is critical to find the team with a history of moving player up to higher level. Do not take anyone word for it, make them prove it.
Tier III hockey in many instance is very good hockey. Tier III player in many instance could play at higher level too. But those player considering Tier III that have other option must look for the most productive path to higher level. Young player should not be in the rush to play junior hockey, in the end, no one remember who play junior, people remember who play college. Though every player have their own path, there are paths that are more proven than others.
Coach
