When players are looking toward their draft year, understanding the numbers can be a critical factor in determining your odd’s of being selected by any team.
Studies have been done in the past to examine the development curve as it relates to the month of birth in a particular birth year. Studies have shown that athletes being born early in the year, January through May in some cases, tend to be more developed than those born later in the year when seen through the eyes of scouts.
Being born earlier in the year can allow an athlete to have one full season more in development in some cases. At the minimum it allows for the earlier birth month players to have more practice time. That early development time can be a significant contributor to growth and development in any athlete regardless of the sport.
The recently completed OHL Draft tends to reinforce this thought. These are the numbers:
Percentage of 98s born in the first six months of the year: 75%
Percentage of 98s born in the last six months of the year: 25%
With 300 players selected, only a handful came from the 1995, 1996, and 1997 birth years. 287 players were selected that were born in 1998. What can be taken from these numbers?
Clearly the OHL teams are drafting for the future, and not immediate impact. This trend can also be seen in the United States Hockey League and in the other Canadian Major Junior Leagues.
While being an older player, in this case outside of the 1998 birth year, does not mean you will not get drafted, it does tend to show you are less likely to be drafted.
The draft, is not a determining factor of whether or not you will make a team either. Many players drafted will never make the drafting teams final roster. While a first or second round selection will be given benefit of the doubt, after the first two rounds picks, its a toss up. Many players that are undrafted will climb the ladder and earn their positions on teams.
For those players not chosen in the draft, the important thing to remember is that the draft is only a projection of what the team drafting see’s as a potential player. It is not a final grade on the players selected or the players that are not selected. Not being drafted is not something to be concerned with.
Joe Hughes
