These are predictions based upon modeling concerning financial support from the university, community, rising costs of equipment, travel, and ice. The predictions were finalized through an Artificial Intelligence computer program. There are no opinions or personal bias involved. Only the relevant mathmatical facts were used for every program.
1. University of Alaska Anchorage Seawolves
Risk level: Very high
Why they’re #1:
- Already cut hockey in 2020, then revived it via emergency fundraising
- Massive travel costs (every road trip requires flights)
- Small enrollment + limited revenue base
This is the clearest case of a program surviving on continuous external support, not stable institutional funding.
2. University of Alaska Fairbanks Nanooks
Risk level: Very high
Why:
- Nearly identical issues to Anchorage
- Long-term budget pressure within the Alaska university system
- Independent scheduling adds instability
If one Alaska program falls again, the other becomes even harder to sustain.
3. Long Island University Sharks men’s ice hockey
Risk level: High
Why:
- Independent program → inefficient travel + scheduling
- No deep hockey tradition or major fanbase
- Private university with competing financial priorities
This is a classic “non-core sport” that could be cut if budgets tighten.
4. Niagara Purple Eagles men’s ice hockey
Risk level: Medium-high
Why:
- Small private school (~3–4k students)
- Plays in Atlantic Hockey (lowest revenue conference)
- Limited attendance and exposure
Fits almost exactly the same profile as Mercyhurst Lakers men’s ice hockey, which just shut down.
5. Canisius Golden Griffins men’s ice hockey
Risk level: Medium-high
Why:
- Similar financial and conference profile to Niagara
- Small enrollment, modest hockey footprint
- Competes in a crowded regional sports market (Buffalo area)
Just outside the top 5 (very watchable)
These aren’t in the top five, but they’re close:
- Bentley Falcons men’s ice hockey
- Robert Morris Colonials men’s ice hockey (already cut once)
- Stonehill Skyhawks men’s ice hockey (new D1 transition risk)
Key pattern behind all 5
Every program above checks multiple boxes:
- Small, tuition-dependent institution
- Limited hockey revenue / attendance
- No Power Conference backing
- High relative cost (travel, facilities, scholarships)
That combination is exactly what led to Mercyhurst’s decision to end their mens program.
Bottom line
- The next closures, if they happen, will almost certainly come from this tier
- Expect:
- 1 program every so often, not a wave
- The biggest wildcard:
- university-wide financial stress, not hockey performance
