As we watch the days tick off the calendar, the hockey landscape begins to come more clear for everyone. What started out back in late April and early May, the recruiting season has now become the wait and see season.
Countless voices of confidence once heard in the arenas around North America voicing confidence in their ability to recruit and develop players while chasing championships, are quickly becoming whisperers needing assistance in finalizing a roster.
While we go through this process every year at this time, this 2025 off season is a little different than years prior. With expansion in every direction of AAA, Tier 3, and Tier 2, the player pool has become quite shallow and while many will blame expansion exclusively, they should not.
With the NCAA rule change in October, more players have given up the dream of NCAA hockey at any level. Many have simply decided to go and play ACHA hockey without playing their last season of junior eligibility, and many more have taken that route directly from high school. That group of 18 and 19 year old players players will impact all levels of junior teams across the continent.
Compounding the issue many Tier 3 teams are convincing players that have AAA eligibility to play junior instead. Pushing the unfounded claim that playing against older and more physically mature players will make them better when in fact it simply takes them out of the higher profile scouting rotation.
At the very top of the order, Tier 2 teams are also holding on to more protected players at this point. The reasons for this are important to recognize. The longer they hold onto a player, the less likely a competitor is to be able to recruit them. A tactic designed to pressure the player pool to directly impact teams at lower levels.
With most Tier 2 teams carrying thirty or more players at this point in the year, the trickle down effect to Tier 3 and AAA teams for those players yet to be cut is roughly a month or more away. This will mean that smart scheduling will come into play for these teams still waiting for players. Limiting games to be played prior to the weekend of September 20th, will be critical.
Well established AAA teams are also holding on to extra players for the next few weeks before protected lists and rosters are due to be turned in to USA Hockey and Hockey Canada.
By our count there are roughly twenty new AAA teams, and another thirty five or more pay to play or Tier 3 teams across North America. Thats more than one thousand players needed to fill those rosters. No small number by any measure.
Simply put, there is not a thousand players that will become available over the next few weeks. They just dont exist. Even if you open up teams and leagues to more import players, the players simply do not exist. And right about now, those teams with more than a dozen players signed are digging in for the battle, and owners with money are preparing to hold on.
Its about to get real busy in The Death Pool. Life preservers may be needed.
