Much ado has been made about the NCDC Mountain Division joining the NAHL. Why? I’m not entirely sure. Mark Frankenfeld had been trying to get these teams to join the NAHL for years. It wasn’t exactly a secret within the junior hockey world.
That said, much of the speculation leading up to the deal was wide-ranging and, in many cases, inaccurate.
Most notably, the Utah Outliers did not make the move despite numerous reports suggesting they would. Henderson, Nevada, which previously hosted a USPHL Premier team, was also rumored to be heading to the NAHL. Neither market ultimately made the transition, and there are several reasons why.
Many people have forgotten that Las Vegas Golden Knights owner Bill Foley committed three years ago to bringing Tier I junior hockey to the region. He even signed a letter expressing that intent. As a result, when USHL expansion was announced the day before the vote on the NCDC teams joining the NAHL, Henderson was effectively taken off the table. In reality, most of Nevada is now likely off the market for NAHL expansion.
As for the Outliers, they simply didn’t need to make the move. They now own their own arena, and moving to the NAHL would significantly increase operating expenses without providing enough additional benefit to justify the cost. From a business standpoint, it doesn’t make much sense.
The NAHL lost the Rochester Jr. Americans and the Maine Nordiques. With Pueblo purchasing the Chippewa Steel franchise, the league’s net gain is only two teams.
Meanwhile, the NCDC lost five franchises but is expected to add several more within that same geographic footprint over the next two years.
So I ask again: what is the big deal?
Beyond providing these teams with more direct access to players released from the CHL and USHL—many of whom are already committed to NCAA programs—where is the real advantage?
Ticket sales? Probably not. Fans may end up paying more to attend games, but attendance itself is unlikely to increase significantly. Most of these organizations already draw very well.
Will there be more NCAA Division I commitments? Certainly. But in most cases, those commitments will have been secured long before the players ever suit up for these teams.
Does it hurt the NCDC? A little, perhaps. It’s never ideal when business partners leave. However, once the initial sting wears off, new opportunities inevitably emerge.
When you factor in USHL expansion across the western United States, the impact on the NCDC appears to be short-term. Many of the players—or caliber of players—that these new NAHL teams hope to attract will eventually gravitate toward the USHL instead.
While joining the NAHL does provide these teams with a boost, that boost may prove temporary. The reality is that both the NAHL and the NCDC increasingly function as NCAA Division III development leagues. USHL expansion is only going to make that more apparent. It’s a simple numbers game.
Let’s assume the USHL adds six western expansion teams. That would create roughly 150 additional roster spots for elite players who otherwise might have chosen the NAHL or BCHL. Remove those players from the recruiting pool—many of whom already have Division I commitments—and the picture becomes much clearer.
Will more NCAA Division I or Division III programs emerge on the West Coast or in the Rocky Mountain region? Probably not anytime soon. Will college scouts make more trips to the Rockies because of this new NAHL division? Yes, but only marginally.
After all, have you ever tried getting to Idaho Falls? It isn’t easy.
Ogden probably benefits the most due to its proximity to the NHL in Salt Lake City. Pueblo returns a significant number of players from last year’s NAHL roster, giving them a head start. Billings, under Steve Haddon, remains something of a wild card, but with Rochester folding, there is a pool of experienced free agents available—and Haddon is an outstanding recruiter. Grand Junction? Your guess is as good as mine.
If the rumors are true and these teams are reunited with former WSHL rivals such as El Paso, I actually feel sorry for the players. Travel was one of the WSHL’s biggest challenges and a major reason the league struggled to retain talent in the western United States. Long bus trips and difficult travel schedules are not a recipe for player retention.
Meanwhile, the NCDC moves forward as part of the largest collection of junior hockey leagues and teams in North America. When you’re the biggest player in the market, you’re bound to face challenges from competitors looking to gain ground.
Ultimately, no one knows how this will play out over the long term. Even the short-term impact remains uncertain.
Is it a big deal? Maybe for this season.
But when the USHL arrives in force across the West, the NAHL may find itself in the same position as the NCDC—serving primarily as a developmental league beneath the top tier. At that point, the gap between the two leagues may be far smaller than many people currently believe.
